Irish Unification Plebiscite Should Not Transform Into 'A Sequel to Brexit', Commentators Warn

Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."